Flirting with Disaster

It said 254 million people were affected by natural disasters last year - nearly three times as many as in 1990. "Alarmingly, this is getting worse."

According to the bulk of scientific opinion, the reason is because the world is getting warmer. It is difficult, if not impossible, to prove the causes of this warming, but many scientists are convinced that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere are to blame.

Some GHG gases like hydro carbons, methane and nitrous oxide are released as by products of certain industrial process which adversely affect the ozone layer, leading to global warming. 60% to 70% of GHG emission is through fuel combustion in industries like cement, steel, textiles and fertilizers.

Kyoto Protocol is a voluntary treaty signed by 141 countries including European Union, Japan and Canada for reducing GHG emission by 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2012. However, the US, which accounts for one-third of the total GHG emission, is yet to ratify the treaty, citing “economic harm” as the reason. The consequences are as heartbreaking as they are terrifying.

The two major countries opposed to the treaty are the USA and Australia, based on the public statements of their governments. In Australia the climate is expected to become significantly warmer: by 2070 the annual average temperature is predicted to increase by 1°C to 6°C over most of Australia. The number of extreme rainfall events – such as those leading to flooding – is also expected to increase, even though most of the country is anticipated to become drier overall in the 21st century.

The hurricane that struck Louisiana and Mississippi was nicknamed Katrina by the National Weather Service. Its real name is global warming. When the year began with a 2-foot snowfall in Los Angeles, the cause was global warming. Katrina formed over the Bahamas in August 2005, made its first landfall, as a Category 1 hurricane. It weakened to a tropical storm as it moved offshore. However, the system regained strength in the warm waters (caused by the GHG) of the Gulf of Mexico, becoming a Category 5 hurricane. Some early predictions in damages exceeded $100 billion.

Isn’t it economic damage enough? How many more such economic damages can a economy handle to ward off the cited “economic harm”. The major responsibility of curbing emission rests with the developed countries, which have accumulated emissions over a long period of time.